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Aktier & Fonder

Tro och ökad likviditet krävs för att aktiemarknaderna skall återhämta sig

Uppgifter
Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 2039
Trots ett nytt finansiellt paket i EMU och en amerikansk budgetuppgörelse har aktiemarknaderna fallit dramatiskt på sistone. Bakom detta ligger främst en stegrad osäkerhet om konjunkturutsikterna.

Det som nu krävs för att aktiemarknaderna ska återhämta sig är ökad likviditet och en tro i marknaden att senaste tidens fall i många ledande indikatorer inte förebådar en betydligt svagare konjunktur.

Likviditeten kommer att förbättras, och inflationsriskerna faller nu gradvis. Det är positivt. Beträffande konjunkturutsikterna är frågan mer öppen. Senaste tidens försvagning av amerikanska stämningsindikatorer skulle dock delvis kunna förklaras av ökad osäkerhet kopplad till sommarens utdragna budgetdrama i Washington. Förutsättningarna för ekonomisk tillväxt i USA är trots allt ganska goda efter det första halvårets svacka, och alltjämt alerta Asien ger onekligen draghjälp.

Grundproblem nu är den stora osäkerheten om konjunkturperspektiven, som gör det nästintill omöjligt att diskontera börsens förutsättningar. Förutsägbarheten borde dock gradvis öka under de närmaste månaderna; Det gagnar aktiemarknaden, även om den ekonomiska tillväxten skulle bli långsammare 2011-2012 än som låg i tidigare prognoser. Också i ett scenario med lägre tillväxttakt blir extremt solida företag med goda vinster och hög utdelningskapacitet bra investeringar, och ett gott likviditetsläge talar till fördel för företagsobligationer.

Politikerna och centralbankerna har tveklöst hamnat i ett nytt svårt läge. Men inget land har idag råd med en recession. En sådan skulle innebära uteblivna skatteintäkter och ökad arbetslöshet, vilket vore förödande för budgetsaneringarna. Beslutsfattarna kommer med andra ord göra allt för att vinna konsumenters, företags och marknaders förtroende.

/ SEB INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Publicerad: 2011-08-04

Källa: www.seb.se; SEB; Hämtad 8 augusti 2011