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Aktivitetsindex, ökning i mars 2008

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Skriv ut
Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 1926

Den svenska ekonomin fortsatte uppåt i mars enligt den skattade trenden för Aktivitetsindex. Trendvärdet ökade med 0,2 procent jämfört med februari, vilket uppräknat till årstakt är 2,8 procent.


Uppgången i Aktivitetsindex förklaras framför allt av varuexporten samt arbetade timmar för offentligt anställda. Omsättningen inom detaljhandeln bidrog också till uppgången. Varuimporten och industriproduktionen gav negativa bidrag.

Förändringen av trendvärdet hos Aktivitetsindex från mars 2007 till mars 2008 var 2,6 procent. Säsongrensat Aktivitetsindex, som i högre grad än trenden påverkas av tillfälliga störningar, minskade med 0,1 procent i mars jämfört med februari.

Angående Aktivitetsindex avvikelse gentemot BNP, se nedan under ”Definitioner och förklaringar”.

Aktivitetsindex, mars 2008

Definitioner och förklaringar
Aktivitetsindex (AI) avser att mäta aktiviteten i ekonomin. Det är en sammanvägning av industriproduktionsindex (IPI), arbetade timmar för offentligt anställda (SYS), omsättningen i detaljhandeln (OMS), varuexport och -import (EXP resp. IMP). Indexet är avstämt mot BNP (2000=100) så att BNP och Aktivitetsindex är lika för alla kvartal.

Aktivitetsindex föreligger i tre varianter - originalserien, den säsongrensade serien samt en skattning av trenden. Den sistnämnda reducerar effekten av tillfälliga störningar hos det säsongrensade indexet. Avstämningen mot BNP avser originalserien. Medelvärdet för Aktivitetsindex originalserie för månaderna i kvartalet är lika med BNP för kvartalet, beräknad som ett index med basår 2000. Observera dock att förändringarna hos Aktivitetsindex trend och den säsongrensade serien för BNP kan skilja sig åt. När BNP för innevarande kvartal är okänt, skrivs avvikelsen mellan Aktivitetsindex och senast publicerad BNP fram. T.ex. om ej justerat Aktivitetsindex är 2 indexenheter högre än senaste BNP (beräknat som index), skrivs Aktivitetsindex ned med 2 indexenheter. Största revideringen sedan 1998 skedde vid publiceringen av januari 2007. Då visade ej justerat Aktivitetsindex för fjärde kvartalet 2006 ett värde 3.6 indexenheter högre än BNP. Det bidrog till de stora revideringarna av Aktivitetsindex för fjärde kvartalet 2006 vid januaripubliceringen. Normalt justeras Aktivitetsindex med högst cirka 2 indexenheter.

Publicerad: 2008-05-09

Källa: www.scb.se ; Statistiska Centralbyrån; Hämtad 12 maj 2008


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