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Samhällsekonomi

Konjunkturprognos från SBAB, juni 2008

Uppgifter
Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 1642
Det höga oljeprisets inflationsimpulser och kreditkrisens negativa konjunktureffekter är ett dilemma för centralbankerna. Riksbanken höjer styrräntan redan i sommar men ett lägre oljepris ger utrymme för räntesänkningar nästa år. I ett riskscenario med ytterligare uppgång i oljepriset får Riksbanken hålla kvar styrräntan på 4,50 procent under de två kommande åren.

Oljeprisets utveckling är centralt för konjunkturen men samtidigt osäkert. För att ta hänsyn till den stora osäkerheten används två olika banor för oljepriset i prognosen. I huvudscenariot faller oljepriset till 100 dollar per fat till 2010. I riskscenariot fortsätter oljepriset att stiga till 170 dollar per fat 2010.

Huvudscenario – oljepriset faller till 100 dollar per fat
Den tidigare uppgången i oljepriset och krisen på kreditmarknaden ger en svag internationell konjunktur i år och en dämpad tillväxt även under nästa år. Inflationen kulminerar i år och faller sedan tillbaka.

– Den höga inflationen får Riksbanken att höja styrräntan till 4,50 procent redan i juli. När inflationstoppen passerats kan Riksbanken sänka styrräntan till 4 procent under nästa år, säger Tor Borg, ränteanalytiker på SBAB. Den svenska konjunkturen dras ner av den internationella kreditkrisen och höga råvarupriser. BNP-prognosen för i år justeras ner från 2,4 till 2,0 procent men starkare internationell efterfrågan och expansiv finanspolitik får tillväxten att stiga till 2,8 procent 2009 och 3,4 procent 2010.

Riskscenario – oljepriset stiger till 170 dollar per fat
En fortsatt uppgång i oljepriset gör att konjunkturen försvagas ytterligare och nedgången i inflationen fördröjs. Den svenska finanspolitiken antas bli än mer expansiv men BNPtillväxten blir ändå en halv procentenhet lägre än i huvudscenariot både 2009 och 2010. Inflationstakten blir cirka en halv procentenhet högre båda åren.

– Trots svagare konjunktur tvingar den högre inflationen Riksbanken att hålla kvar styrräntan på 4,50 procent under de två kommande åren, säger Tomas Pousette, chefsekonom på SBAB. Även i detta riskscenario är rörliga boräntor fördelaktiga.

Publicerad: 2008-06-12

Källa: www.sbab.se ; SBAB; Hämtad 12 juni 2008