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Samhällsekonomi

Konjunkturen vänder mot slutet av 2013

Uppgifter
Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 1549
Ökat förtroende hos hushåll och företag tyder på en vändning i konjunkturen mot slutet av året. Det ser också något ljusare ut på arbetsmarknaden där arbetslösheten börjar minska. Samtidigt stimuleras ekonomin genom skattesänkningar och låg ränta.

Framöver väntar dock finanspolitiska åtstramningar om överskottsmålet ska uppnås. Det visar Konjunkturinstitutets nya prognos som publiceras i dag.

Svensk BNP-tillväxt tar fart 2014 efter en svag utveckling sedan 2011. Trots de senaste årens låga tillväxt har sysselsättningen ökat i ungefär samma takt som befolkningen. Mätt på detta sätt har arbetsmarknadsläget varit stabilt, men eftersom allt fler har sökt sig till arbetsmarknaden steg arbetslösheten fram till början av 2013.

Ökningen i arbetskraften har sedan dämpats något till följd av den demografiska utvecklingen och att effekterna av regeringens utbudsstimulerande politik till stor del har realiserats. Eftersom sysselsättningen fortsätter att öka i ungefär samma takt som tidigare så sjunker arbetslösheten till 7,8 procent 2014.

Riksbanken höjer räntan I början av 2015
Inflationen hålls nere genom lågt resursutnyttjande i Sverige och i omvärlden. Det i nuläget svaga resursutnyttjandet innebär dock att återhämtningen blir utdragen och penningpolitiken kommer därför vara fortsatt expansiv under flera år framöver. Riksbanken väntas dock ta hänsyn till hushållens skuldsättning och avstår från att sänka räntan, som börjar höjas första kvartalet 2015.

Satsningar i höstbudgeten kräver besparingsåtgärder framöver
Regeringen har i år genomfört ofinansierade reformer på 25 miljarder kronor. Konjunkturinstitutet räknar med att regeringen lägger ytterligare 25 miljarder kronor på ofinansierade reformer 2014, varav drygt hälften antas vara skattesänkningar till hushållen och resterande del utgiftsökningar.

Men enligt Konjunkturinstitutets bedömning finns det inget långsiktigt reformutrymme. Ofinansierade åtgärder i höstens budget kräver därför motsvarande besparingsåtgärder framöver om överskottsmålet ska uppfyllas.

Publicerad: 2013-08-27

Källa: www.konj.se; Konjunkturinstitutet; Hämtad 2 september 2013