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Samhällsekonomi

Konjunkturåterhämtningen hämmas av problem i omvärlden

Uppgifter
Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 1567
Konjunkturen är på väg att förbättras och indikatorer pekar på att optimismen har återvänt i Sverige. Företag och hushålls förtroende har stärkts, samtidigt som arbetslösheten minskar och sysselsättningen fortsätter att öka. Men svensk ekonomi hålls tillbaka av problemen i omvärlden som mycket långsamt håller på att lösas. Därför fortsätter lågkonjunkturen de närmaste åren, men i en mildare form än tidigare. Det visar Konjunkturinstitutets prognos i december 2013.

BNP-tillväxten i Sverige var svag under tredje kvartalet 2013, men ny information tyder på att tillväxten stiger det fjärde kvartalet. Bakgrunden är att både hushåll och företag visar tillförsikt om framtiden i sina svar i Konjunkturbarometern, där den sammanvägda nivån ligger betydligt över historiskt medelvärde.

Konjunkturåterhämtningen inleds det fjärde kvartalet 2013. Hushållens konsumtion växer snabbare 2014 till följd av fortsatt låga räntor och att de disponibla inkomsterna ökar snabbt.

Investeringar och export driver på uppgång
Skattesänkningar och låg inflation bidrar till att förstärka hushållens köpkraft. Men det som framför allt driver på uppgången i BNP-tillväxten är att både investeringar och export vänder upp när efterfrågan från omvärlden tar fart. Investeringarna påverkas också av att bostadsbyggande är på väg upp.

Trenden för arbetslösheten är nu tydligt nedåtgående. De första tre kvartalen 2013 steg sysselsättningen med 45 000 personer, vilket är snabbare än ökningen av befolkningen i arbetsför ålder.

När efterfrågan ökar nästa år utnyttjar företagen till en början befintlig personal effektivare. Men allt eftersom företagets personalstyrka inte räcker till kommer företagen att nyanställa fler. Sysselsättningen fortsätter därmed att stiga.

Klokt av riksbanken att sänka räntan
Riksbankens beslut att sänka räntan till 0,75 procent var väl avvägt mot bakgrund av den svaga konjunkturen och låga inflationen. Beslutet stöttar återhämtningen i ekonomin.

Publicerad: 2013-12-18

Källa: www.konj.se; Konjunkturinstitutet; Hämtad 22 januari 2014